Argentina’s ‘lost decade’ – formal private employment still at 2016 levels

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Argentina’s ‘lost decade’ – formal private employment still at 2016 levels

Argentina is experiencing a “lost decade” in terms of formal private employment. 

As of May this year, there were around 6.13 million registered in private companies, practically the same number as July 2016. The decline deepened during the past year for all 12 months running, leaving Argentina with 241,000 jobs less than in November, 2023, despite economic activity being at the same level. 

The latest reports, both official and private, further agree that the decline in the number of jobs is not over – hiring is weakening and the weight of jobs without labour law protection is growing.

An August report on Employment, Distribution and Labour Institutions by IIEP/ UBA-CONICET quantifies that decline. Last May, private wage employment again fell by  9,100 jobs at a monthly 0.1 percent, thus completing a full year of decline from June 2025. Against November 2023, the cumulative contraction reached 3.8 percent, while in the year-on-year comparison around 135,000 jobs disappeared.
 

Decade without formal private-sector job expansion

The scale of stagnation appears more clearly when broadening the historic comparison. According to the HEP/UBA-CONICET report, there were approximately 6.132 million registered private-sector wage-earners last May, close to the 6.169 million of July 2016 – i.e. 37,000 less jobs. The current level is 4.3 percent below the peak of the series reached in August, 2023. The report defines this scenario synthetically as “the lost decade.”

Official data from the Labour Department show the same decline recently. Last May registered private-sector jobs reached 6.107 million workers in the series used by the department, 0.1 percent below April. The downward trend began in September 2023 with a partial recovery between October and December, 2024, declining again as from mid-2025.

The particular feature is that job losses coexist with a level of economic activity superior to late 2023. The HEP/UBA-CONICET report points out that while last May’s activity was 4.9 percent above November, 2023, private-sector registered jobs accumulated a fall of 3.8 percent – the pick-up in activity did not translate into an equivalent recovery of formal jobs.

Trade and industry at heart of tlosses

According to data from the SIPA (Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino) pension fund system, there was no uniform distribution of the decline among the activities. 

Last May eight sectors reduced their number of workers, according to the official report with Fisheries (down 2.9 percent), Construction (down 0.5 percent), Trade and repairs (down 0.3 percent), Transport (down 0.3 percent) and Manufacturing industry (down 0.3 percent) standing out. In interannual terms, private-sector employment fell 2.2 percent, equivalent to 137,500 less workers.

In the number of jobs, Trade, Industry and Construction again headed the losses in May with 4,200, 3,200 and 2,000 less jobs, respectively. The HEP/UBA CONICET report warns that the former two sectors have headed the contraction since September, 2025. In the case of industry, the plunge is more prolonged – since September, 2023 almost 90,000 jobs have been lost, of which around 52,000 correspond to the last 12 months.

Construction also remains among the hardest-hit sectors. After registering increases at the end of last year and the start of this, stability during February and March and a dip in April, employment again retreated 0.5 percent in May. At 378,000 workers, it remained among the lowest levels in the series starting in 2009, except those registered during the pandemic and the 2024-25 contraction. From its peak in May, 2023, the sector lost 93,000 jobs.

Nor do advance indicators show any immediate change of trend. The EIL (Encuesta de Indicadores Laborales) labour survey revealed that in June registered jobs in private-sector companies with over 10 employees again fell 0.1 percent, accumulating eight consecutive months without growth. As against mid-2025, the contraction reached 1.3 percent.

Labour market movements also lost intensity. In June both hiring and firing dropped off with both below the average of the last 12 months. The entry rate was 1.6 percent and the exit 1.7 percent for a continuing negative gap for employment. At the same time the search for staff fell to its lowest levels in the past year.

The CP Consultora firm deepens the historic comparison in a report, maintaining that the current crisis in registered private-sector employment accumulated around 135,000 job losses, equivalent to 97 percent of the fall registered between December, 2023 and July, 2024. Excluding construction, the consultants estimated that the current slump reaches 127,000 jobs, as against 70,000 then, pointing out the 2023-2026 crisis topped that observed between 2018 and 2019.

Nevertheless, the companies have issued some favourable signs for the next few months. Last June five percent expected to change their staffing with 3.2 percent projecting an increase and 1.9 percent reduction, leaving net positive expectations of 1.3 percent. The construction and manufacturing industry presented the best perspectives for hiring while the expectations of communal, social and personal services continued to be negative.

From formal to unprotected jobs

The hiring of registered employees is occurring at the same time that other indicators show growth in the more precarious forms of labour. 

A dossier produced the IAG (Instituto Argentina Grande) institute, elaborated on the basis of the EPH household survey microdata, calculated that in the first quarter of this year 45.2 percent of the employed labour analysed found themselves “unprotected,” a category used to identify the workers without the conditions of protection or stability defined in their methodology.

According to the study, between 2024 and 2026 a total of 626,000 jobs lost their protection while 56,000 jobs considered protected were lost, as were 212,000 in the public sector. IAG maintained that the jobs disappearing in the public and formal private sectors were not  compensated by other formal sectors, linking that process to the expansion of unskilled labour.

The decline is especially marked among youth. For people aged between 18 and 26, the lack of labour protection passed from 53.4 to 61.6 percent in two years. In that period, young males lost 30,000 public-sector jobs and 96,000 protected jobs in the private sector while some of those left out in the cold passed to precarious tasks. The report counted a total of 160,000 less quality jobs for youth between 2024 and 2026.

The combination of these indicators leaves a labour market in which the problem exceeds the last monthly fall. Formal private-sector employment has returned to numbers of workers comparable to those of a decade ago, accumulating an entire year of decline and still not displaying any sustained recovery.

While the official data register continuous falls with weak hiring dynamics, private surveys show an increasing share of employment shifting towards less protected jobs, deepening the distance between the recovery of activity and formal job creation.

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