The decline in the manufacturing industry, one of the sectors hardest hit since President Javier Milei took office, shows no signs of stopping.
According to research firm Orlando Ferreres & Asociados (OJF), industrial activity in July fell 0.4%. This decline has accelerated over the first seven months of the year, with activity now 2% below the same period last year.
The Argentine Industrial Union (in Spanish, UIA) estimated a similar decline, registering a 0.6% monthly drop. They also calculated a 1.4% year-over-year increase in July, which they attributed to “a low baseline.”
Accumulated decline for 2026 stood at 2% compared to the same period last year. Compared to 2022 and 2023, the last two years of President Alberto Fernández, the drop this year is even greater, standing at 10%.
A rundown of the numbers
The sharpest monthly decline was in automotive production, which fell by 6.8%. Exports also suffered, with the UIA highlighting the drop in exports to Brazil (-12%).
This is no minor issue, as Brazil is Argentina’s largest trading partner and the destination for nearly 40% of its manufactured goods, primarily from the automotive sector.
Looking ahead, the consulting firm noted that the industry will continue to be marked by the duality between “sectors oriented toward the foreign market and sectors weakened by low domestic demand.”
They added that improvement in the industry’s lagging sectors is tied to “a recovery in retail consumption driven by an increase in household income.”
However, that does not yet appear to be happening.
According to the latest official data from statistics institute INDEC for June, wages for registered workers in the private sector were 3.6% below the level observed in November 2023 — the month before Milei took office.
Even according to labor ministry data, which is gathered and processed with a different methodology, wages are 0.6% below the levels of three years ago.
The debacle of manufacturing under Milei
A report by the Argentine Center for Political Economy (CEPA), based on official data, estimated that almost 1,700 industrial companies have closed their doors since Milei took office.
This is the sixth-largest sector in terms of closures in this period, coming behind professional, scientific, and technical services; construction; retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; and real estate and transportation services.
In terms of the number of jobs lost, however, the industrial sector ranks fourth, with 39,000.
Rounding out this ranking are transportation and storage services (down almost 55,000), construction (80,000), and public administration, defense, and mandatory social security (98,000).
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