Latin America’s exports surge 20%: a new commodity boom looming?

Despite a year marked by geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the war in the Middle East and the trade war between China and the U.S., recent data show that global trade has continued to grow.

Global trade volumes expanded by more than 5% in the first half of 2026, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the United Nations body tasked with promoting economic development in the region.

The figure is particularly significant because it more than double the 1.9% growth the World Trade Organization (WTO) had forecast for the entire year.

“This expansion, largely driven by the strong demand for electronic components associated with the AI-related investment boom, was led by China and other developing economies in Asia,” the report noted.

Latin America was one of the regions that benefited most from this expansion in global trade.

According to ECLAC, goods exports from Latin America and the Caribbean rose 20% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, while imports increased 14%.

“The strong export performance of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026 is largely attributable to the sharp increase in commodity prices,” analysts at the international organization said in their International Trade Outlook, released this week.

Between January and August, the region’s aggregate export price index rose 23.5% compared with the same period a year earlier and is projected to increase 20.4% for the year as a whole.

Minerals and metals are the main drivers, with prices projected to rise 31.6%, led by significant increases in copper, gold, silver and tin.

The outlook for the second half of the year is also positive. Total goods exports are expected to grow 20% in value terms, reflecting an 11% increase in prices and a 9% rise in volumes.

“This would mark a sixth consecutive year of growth in the region’s export volumes,” the report noted.

The geographical distribution of the region’s exports is also “shifting significantly” toward Asia. Exports to Asia, excluding China, are projected to post the strongest growth in 2026, expanding 32% in value terms. Shipments to the United States are expected to grow 24%, followed by the European Union (20%) and China (19%). Intraregional exports, by contrast, are expected to grow by just 8%.

A new commodity boom? Against this favorable backdrop, the Herald asked ECLAC Executive Secretary José Manuel Salazar whether the region could be on the verge of a new commodity boom similar to the one experienced between 2003 and 2014.

While acknowledging that current conditions “open a favorable window of opportunity” amid rising demand and prices, Salazar stressed that the circumstances are “very different” from those that fueled the commodity boom at the beginning of the century.

In Latin America, that period brought improved terms of trade, higher foreign-currency revenues and a cycle of economic expansion. However, it also deepened the region’s dependence on natural resource exports.

According to Salazar, the main “engine” of that earlier boom was China’s “massive industrial demand.” The Asian economy grew at an annual rate of 9% to 10% for more than a decade, driving demand for commodities across the globe.

The current landscape is different. While China remains an important source of demand, the trend is now being driven by the “technological revolution, the need for energy security strategies and the green transition,” he explained.

That shift introduces an element of “technological uncertainty,” Salazar said. He cited lithium as an example: international demand for the mineral could decline if researchers develop a battery technology that does not rely on it.

“As we know, research and development in developed countries and China is enormous,” he noted.

Salazar also highlighted rising demand for rare earth elements, deposits of which are found in several countries across the region, while warning that capitalizing on these resources presents significant challenges.

“Even the extraction and refining of rare earths is much more complicated than extracting copper or other minerals,” he emphasized.

Ultimately, he argued, Latin America faces a challenge that goes beyond supplying raw materials to global markets.

“There is something much more sophisticated that we need to understand: what can be done with the region’s talent to add value in this new ‘supercycle,’ which is more closely linked to technology,” he said.