Inflation rises to 2.2% in October

Updated 5.45 p.m.

Inflation in Argentina rose to 2.2% in October, according to a report released Thursday by the national statistics agency INDEC.

The figure marks the second consecutive monthly increase, following a reading of 1.9% in September. It is the first time in three months that monthly inflation has exceeded the 2% mark.

The October reading was also the highest since April, when inflaton reached 2.6%.

However, there was some good news for Javier Milei’s government. Core inflation stood at 1.5%, down from 1.7% the previous month.

In fact, core inflation has been this low only once during Milei’s administration, in July 2025, 15 months ago.

The last time core inflation was lower was November 2017, when it stood at 1.3%.

Prices rose 33.1% year-on-year, while cumulative inflation for the first ten months of 2026 reached 26.3%.

Headline inflation vs. core inflation The notable difference between the headline inflation figure and the core inflation measure stems from the fact that core inflation excludes products and services whose prices fluctuate significantly for seasonal reasons, as well as those whose prices are regulated by the government.

These were precisely the categories that recorded the largest increases. Seasonal prices rose 5.5%, driven by a substantial increase in the prices of vegetables, tubers, and legumes.

Meanwhile, regulated prices increased by 2.9%, reflecting higher prices in the gas and motor vehicle fuel categories.

According to analysts at brokerage firm Puente, “The modification of the Cold Zone Regime [a system of subsidized natural gas tariffs for certain colder regions of Argentina] may have had an impact on the regulated-price subindex.”

The analysts added that this is also evident in the breakdown by category: the largest monthly increase was recorded in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels (4.2%), with regional variations ranging from -2.2% to +11.1%.

In his analysis of the inflation figures on X, Economy Minister Luis Caputo reached a similar conclusion: “This month’s figure was affected by changes to the Cold Zone Regime, which influenced the variation recorded in the housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels category,” he stated.

EN OCTUBRE LA INFLACIÓN FUE DE 2,2% Y LA INFLACIÓN NÚCLEO DE 1,5%, LA MÁS BAJA EN 15 MESES
✅ El IPC Nacional registró una variación de 2,2% mensual, desagregada en una variación de 1,5% en el IPC Núcleo, 5,5% en la categoría Estacionales y 2,9% en Regulados
✅ La variación…

— totocaputo (@LuisCaputoAR) November 12, 2026 The second-largest increase, meanwhile, was recorded in recreation and culture (3.3%).

At the other end of the spectrum, the two categories with the smallest price increases nationwide were alcoholic beverages and tobacco (0.8%) and education (1.3%).

Despite the decline in core inflation figure, the result disappointed the market, as analysts had expected the headline inflation to come in at around 1.8%.

“We will have to see whether headline inflation converges with core inflation once these temporary factors have passed, although the impact of the Cold Zone Regime may also be felt in November,” Puente analysts argued.

Meanwhile, Guido Zack, Director of Economics at the Fundar think tank, told the Herald that “within this unfavorable context, the only encouraging sign is that core inflation has declined.”

Although he noted that “one might think that part of this (upward) effect is likely to reverse in November,” he emphasized that both headline and core inflation “are showing greater volatility than usual.”

Therefore, he does not consider the 1.5% figure to represent “a new ceiling for core inflation.”

He concluded: “The reality remains the same: the government, and Argentina as a whole, are struggling to definitively push monthly inflation below the 2% threshold.”