Government projects 4% growth and 18% inflation in 2027 budget

President Javier Milei and Economy Minister Luis Caputo filed their 2027 budget bill in Congress on Tuesday night. The bill estimates inflation for next year at 18% and economic growth at 4%.

The figures mean the government has lowered its expectations for the next fiscal period. 

In 2026 the budget estimated almost half the inflation rate: 10.1%, way below the actual number, which surpassed 21% through August.

The 2027 budget also corrects the expected inflation for this year, setting the new level at 29% by December.

Economic growth has also been revised downwards. While the 2026 budget estimated it would reach 5.4%, in the first half of 2026 it grew by only 1.9%, led by agroindustry, mining and fishing.

Industry, commerce and investment registered year-on-year declines.

However, the government is optimistic about salaries, as it expects them to increase by 25% next year, outpacing price increases.

In addition, the Milei administration expects the exchange rate to reach AR$1,847.60 per dollar by the end of 2027. It currently stands at AR$1,530, higher than the AR$1,423 the government had expected it to reach by December 2026.

Once again, the budget bill sets a fiscal surplus and zero deficit as its main goals. “This will be the first time in our history that we will have four consecutive years of a fiscal surplus in the budget, with the country not in default,” Minister Caputo said while presenting the bill on Tuesday.

He stated that there will be a primary surplus of US$18.44 trillion, equivalent to 1.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and a fiscal surplus of US$3.30 trillion, representing 0.2% of GDP, after accounting for debt interest payments.

The government also expects exports of more than US$130 billion and a favorable trade balance in goods and services exceeding US$15 billion.

Congress debates in October The bill was filed in the Lower House minutes after 10 p.m. on Tuesday, complying with the September 15 deadline for the executive branch to present the document each year.

According to the Heralds sister publication mbito, unlike in previous years, Milei will not give a televised national address to announce the budget bill nor explain its contents to legislators.

There will also be no presentation to Congress by Minister Caputo, as is custom in Argentina. However, mbito reported that other economy ministry officials are expected to defend the bill in Parliament.

Commission debate is expected to begin in the first week of October in the Lower House. There is still no set date for the bill to be taken to the chambers floor.

Ruling party La Libertad Avanza will now have to negotiate with allies, governors and the opposition to secure support for the bill, potentially making some concessions.

The 2026 budget bill was the first one approved under the current administration. In previous years, Milei governed by discretionally updating the 2023 budget.