Good news for Milei: Argentine agro-industry projects new record for 2027

President Javier Milei received some good news looking ahead to 2027, as initial estimates from the agricultural sector point to a new record in grain production for next year.

Projected production is 158 million tonnes, according to estimates from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, one of the leading trade associations for the Argentine agricultural sector. This is a 0.5% increase compared to the 157 million tonnes from 2026.

Based on this data, the exchange also projects that economic activity linked to the agro-industrial sector will total US$54 billion (nearly 6% higher than the previous cycle), with exports reaching US$41 billion (a 6.9% increase).

Ramiro Costa, general manager of the agricultural chamber, clarified that these figures are not yet final.

“They represent the potential we see today and will depend on how the weather and production decisions evolve over the coming months,” the economist noted.

Although mining and oil and gas production have grown strongly in recent times in terms of output and exports, the agricultural sector remains the main source of foreign exchange for the Argentine economy.

Between January and August 2026, primary products and agricultural-based manufactured goods — excluding meat and meat products — accounted for just over 50% of the US$67 billion in goods exported by Argentina.

Looking towards 2027 Among the positive signs for the new crop year, the chamber pointed to the reduction in agricultural export duties implemented by the government a few months ago.

Milei announced the reduction last May during a ceremony marking the 172nd anniversary of the Grain Exchange.

In that speech, he confirmed tax cuts for wheat and barley from 7.5% to 5.5% effective June 2026. In the case of soybeans, he committed to a gradual reduction beginning in January 2027 and continuing through 2028, subject to revenue trends.

During the presentation, the organization’s president, Ricardo Marra, stated that moving progressively toward the elimination of export duty taxes was “essential,” not only because it “improves producers’ bottom line,” but also because it “creates better incentives to produce, invest, adopt technology, and export.”

Challenges to overcome Although the businessman’s overall tone was positive, Marra also voiced some criticism.

He stated that growth also requires competitiveness, which “does not end at the ranch gate.” Marra also listed a series of challenges to overcome in order to “produce and export more over the next decade,” including infrastructure improvement such as roads, railways, access to ports, and waterways.

“We also need to continue expanding market access and the international integration of our agribusiness sector, removing barriers, forging agreements, and ensuring that Argentina can compete in an increasing number of markets with products of higher value-added,” he noted.

Marra’s comments take on added significance when one considers that one of Argentina’s major competitors in the international agricultural products market is its Mercosur partner: Brazil.

The outlook for Mercosur The agricultural competition between Argentina and Brazil became evident during the presentation of the chamber’s third edition of the Mercosur Outlook, a forecast focusing on the regional agricultural sector outlook through 2036.

According to the chamber’s estimates, Mercosur (which includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay) currently exports US$197 billion worth of food annually. Brazil is the world’s leading exporter, while Argentina is third.

The bloc also accounts for 59% of global soybean exports and 36% of global corn exports.

Mercosur projections include an increase in cereal and oilseed production, rising from almost 535 to 591 million tonnes (18.7% growth). The planted area would grow by 9.6%, and exports by 18.1%.

Corn would lead the growth in volume, with an additional 52 million tonnes, 64% of which would come from Brazil. It would be followed by soybeans, with an additional 34 million metric tons — 75% from Brazil — and wheat, with an additional 5.3 million tonnes (74% from Argentina).