Inflation in Argentina rose to 2.1% in July, according to a report published on Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics Agency (INDEC).
The figure marks a break from June’s 1.9% reading and the end of the slowdown in inflation observed over the previous three months.
The reading is therefore in line with the 2.1% recorded in May 2026.
Core inflation, meanwhile, stood at 1.8%, a slight increase from 1.6% the previous month.
Even so, excluding the June figure, it is the lowest reading since July last year.
Prices rose 33.8% year-on-year, while cumulative inflation for 2026 stands at 19.3%.
The numbers in different categories
Seasonal prices rose 4.5%, driven by increases in vegetables, tour packages, and accommodation services.
Regulated prices increased 2.1%, due to higher public transportation fares, private health insurance costs, and electricity prices.
The division with the largest increase during the month was recreation and culture (5%), as a result of higher prices for tour packages and cultural services during winter holidays.
The second-largest increase was recorded in restaurants and hotels (2.8%).
At the other end of the spectrum, the smallest variation nationwide was clothing and footwear, which recorded deflation of -1.3%.
This is the first time this category has recorded an actual decline in prices—as opposed to merely a slowdown in price increases—since August 2025.
It was also its largest monthly decline since at least 2016, when the current methodology was introduced, as a result of increased imports of clothing and footwear and consumers’ reduced purchasing power.
A temporary stumble or a change in trend?
For Eric Ritondale, Chief Economist at brokerage firm Puente, the most relevant aspect of the July report was that core inflation once again fell below the 2% threshold.
He said that this is “a positive signal that validates an underlying slowdown in inflation compared with the second half of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, highlighting the impact of monetary and fiscal anchors.”
Looking ahead, he expects the disinflation process to continue over the coming months.
However, Ritondale warned that the inflation trajectory “will not be a strictly linear process,” but will show some monthly volatility “given the seasonality of certain categories and adjustments in relative prices.”
Santiago Casas, Chief Economist at consulting firm EcoAnalytics, reached a similar conclusion. “The data once again confirms that the disinflation process will be slow and uneven,” he said.
In this regard, he noted that July once again made it clear that “seasonality plays an important role in the monthly dynamics of prices.”
He commented that core inflation “still shows some resistance to continuing its decline,” although he expects it to resume a downward trajectory in the coming months.
“The key is for this component to gradually converge toward lower levels,” he emphasized.
He added that if inflation maintains this trajectory, 2026 would end with annual inflation of around 30%.
Sergio González, Head of Asset Management at brokerage firm Cohen Aliados Financieros, explained that the reaction of Argentine assets to the inflation data was limited.
“The absence of a surprise means that, for now, there is no need to recalibrate expectations,” he explained. He added that “the market continues to price in a path of disinflation.”
According to his estimates, August inflation would come in between 1.9% and 2.0% month-on-month, “consistent with this slowdown in inflation.”
