Elections in Brazil: Bolsonaro wins, not enough to avoid runoff against Lula

Senator and Liberal Party leader Flvio Bolsonaro won the Brazilian presidential elections on Sunday with a little over 47% of the vote, surpassing current President Luiz Incio Lula da Silva (Workers Party), who came in second (almost 45%). 

The result, however, is not enough to declare a new president, as neither obtained the required majority of legal votes (50%) to win in the first round. Bolsonaro, son of far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro (2018-2022), and Lula, who is looking to win a record fourth presidential election, will compete in a runoff on October 25. 

The winner will begin their term on January 1, 2027, and rule until December 2030.

Although the polls predicted a close election that would end in a runoff, most had the roles reversed, with Lula winning and far-right Bolsonaro coming in second. The center-left president’s defeat continues a post-pandemic trend in which incumbents lost the overwhelming majority of elections when they were either up for reelection or their party competed with another candidate. 

The other 11 candidates competing in the election came in far behind, with psychiatrist Augusto Cury, from the centrist Avante party, coming in third with almost 3%.

In addition to electing a new president and vice president, Brazilians also renew the lower house in its entirety, two-thirds of the Senate, and governors for the countrys 26 states plus Braslia, the capital city. Governors are subject to the same rule as the presidential election, requiring 50% of the vote to win outright.

While most state elections will go to a runoff, San Pablo was one of the few that saw a clear winner on Sunday. Tarcsio de Freitas, a Bolsonaro ally, won reelection with almost 67% of the vote, surpassing former economy minister and Working Party presidential candidate Fernando Haddad (37%).